Using experimental reintroductions to resolve the roles of habitat quality and metapopulation dynamics on patch occupancy in fragmented landscapes.

Declines of species in fragmented landscapes can potentially be reversed either by restoring connectivity or restoring local habitat quality. Models fitted to snapshot occupancy data can be used to predict the effectiveness of these actions. However, such inferences can be misleading if the reliability of the habitat and landscape metrics used is unknown. The only way to unambiguously resolve the roles of habitat quality and metapopulation dynamics is to conduct experimental reintroductions to unoccupied patches so that habitat quality can be measured directly from data on vital rates. We, therefore, conducted a 15-year study that involved reintroducing a threatened New Zealand bird to unoccupied forest fragments to obtain reliable data on their habitat quality and reassess initial inferences made by modeling occupancy against habitat and landscape metrics. Although reproductive rates were similar among fragments, subtle differences in adult survival rates resulted in λ (finite rate of increase) estimations of <0.9 for 9 of the 12 fragments that were previously unoccupied. This was the case for only 1 of 14 naturally occupied fragments. This variation in λ largely explained the original occupancy pattern, reversing our original conclusion from occupancy modeling that this occupancy pattern was isolation driven and suggesting that it would be detrimental to increase connectivity without improving local habitat quality. These results illustrate that inferences from snapshot occupancy should be treated with caution and subjected to testing through experimental reintroductions in selected model systems.

Uso de Reintroducciones Experimentales para Determinar las Funciones de la Calidad delHábitat y las Dinámicas Metapoblacionales en la Ocupación de Paisajes Fragmentados Resumen La declinación de las especies en paisajes fragmentados tiene el potencial de ser revertida mediante la restauración de la conectividad o de la calidad del hábitat. Se pueden utilizar los modelos ajustados a los datos de ocupación instantánea para predecir la efectividad de estas acciones. Sin embargo, estas inferencias pueden ser engañosas si se desconoce la confiabilidad de las medidas usadas para el hábitat y el paisaje. La única manera de determinar inequívocamente las funciones de la calidad del hábitat y de las dinámicas metapoblacionales es mediante la realización de reintroducciones experimentales en los fragmentos no ocupados, de tal manera que se puede medir directamente la calidad del hábitat a partir de los datos de las tasas vitales. Por lo tanto, realizamos un estudio de 15 años que involucró la reintroducción de un ave neozelandesa amenazada en fragmentos no ocupados de bosque para así obtener datos confiables de la calidad del hábitat y reevaluar las inferencias iniciales hechas por los modelos de ocupación en relación con las medidas de hábitat y paisaje. Aunque las tasas de reproducción fueron similares entre los fragmentos, algunas diferencias sutiles en las tasas de supervivencia de los adultos resultaron en estimaciones λ (una tasa finita de incremento) <0.9 en nueve de los doce fragmentos que no estaban ocupados previamente. Este fue el caso para uno solo de los 14 fragmentos ocupados naturalmente. Esta variación λ explicó en su mayoría el patrón original de ocupación, revirtiendo nuestra conclusión original obtenida del modelo de ocupación de que este patrón estuvo causado por el aislamiento y sugiriendo que sería perjudicial incrementar la conectividad sin mejorar la calidad del hábitat local. Estos resultados muestran que las inferencias a partir de la ocupación instantánea deberían abordarse con cautela y estar sujetas al análisis mediante reintroducciones experimentales en sistemas modelados selectos.

A new approach to the "apparent survival" problem: estimating true survival rates from mark-recapture studies.

Survival estimates generated from live capture-mark-recapture studies may be negatively biased due to the permanent emigration of marked individuals from the study area. In the absence of a robust analytical solution, researchers typically sidestep this problem by simply reporting estimates using the term "apparent survival." Here, we present a hierarchical Bayesian multistate model designed to estimate true survival by accounting for predicted rates of permanent emigration. Initially we use dispersal kernels to generate spatial projections of dispersal probability around each capture location. From these projections, we estimate emigration probability for each marked individual and use the resulting values to generate bias-adjusted survival estimates from individual capture histories. When tested using simulated data sets featuring variable detection probabilities, survival rates, and dispersal patterns, the model consistently eliminated negative biases shown by apparent survival estimates from standard models. When applied to a case study concerning juvenile survival in the endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis), bias-adjusted survival estimates increased more than twofold above apparent survival estimates. Our approach is applicable to any capture-mark-recapture study design and should be particularly valuable for organisms with dispersive juvenile life stages.

Variability in avian eggshell colour: a comparative study of museum eggshells.

BACKGROUND: The exceptional diversity of coloration found in avian eggshells has long fascinated biologists and inspired a broad range of adaptive hypotheses to explain its evolution. Three main impediments to understanding the variability of eggshell appearance are: (1) the reliable quantification of the variation in eggshell colours; (2) its perception by birds themselves, and (3) its relation to avian phylogeny. Here we use an extensive museum collection to address these problems directly, and to test how diversity in eggshell coloration is distributed among different phylogenetic levels of the class Aves. METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS: Spectrophotometric data on eggshell coloration were collected from a taxonomically representative sample of 251 bird species to determine the change in reflectance across different wavelengths and the taxonomic level where the variation resides. As many hypotheses for the evolution of eggshell coloration assume that egg colours provide a communication signal for an avian receiver, we also modelled reflectance spectra of shell coloration for the avian visual system. We found that a majority of species have eggs with similar background colour (long wavelengths) but that striking differences are just as likely to occur between congeners as between members of different families. The region of greatest variability in eggshell colour among closely related species coincided with the medium-wavelength sensitive region around 500 nm. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of bird species share similar background eggshell colours, while the greatest variability among species aligns with differences along a red-brown to blue axis that most likely corresponds with variation in the presence and concentration of two tetrapyrrole pigments responsible for eggshell coloration. Additionally, our results confirm previous findings of temporal changes in museum collections, and this will be of particular concern for studies testing intraspecific hypotheses relating temporal patterns to adaptation of eggshell colour. We suggest that future studies investigating the phylogenetic association between the composition and concentration of eggshell pigments, and between the evolutionary drivers and functional impacts of eggshell colour variability will be most rewarding.